I don't think they will, with the new concept they cut out all amateurs who had pirated copies. From now on they cater to pro designers and photographers. Companies need that software and are willing to pay. All of them had real copies of Adobe software since years. There will be some new people now, who subscribe and increase revenues again for them. The rest will move to Gimp, and I think that's exactly what they've planned.
I had Elements 10 but for some reason can't get any adobe to work with Windows 8 for me. Don't have the patience to reload windows etc. I wanted to be a part of the masses. I wanted to buy Lightroom and master it but downloaded another program and it seems a lot easier for me. I spent 29.00 for a discounted license and it has more features than I will probably use. Gimp I tried but was overwhelmed. If anyone looking for an alternative you can check it out here for free:
There have already been "cracks" posted for the new Adobe CC version. The hackers are VERY creative and quick. All they have done is p***ed off many of their loyal customers who now have to justify to management another monthly outlay with no guarantee of those monthly subscriptions rate not increasing and no way to "go back". You won't be able to open your CC files in CS6 in many cases. And of course you won't be able to open them in your CC version if you stop paying your monthly subscription, And you can't stop your subscription for a few months and then just start up again... you will have to pay for those "missed" months.. Makes no sense, especially for the "hobbyist". They will just become one of the pirates or go to GIMP.. there really is no choice for them.
For mac, there's pixelmator as a very good alternative to photoshop, priced at $15 it does most if not all of the normal image editing things that photographers need and it also has graphic design options like painting brushes etc..
When I needed to update my old PS I absolutely didn't like the new adobe cloud stuff or having to pay a monthly fee. I have enough monthly bills like that already. So I'm glad I discovered pixelmator, which does everything I was doing in PS and much faster and in a better interface design.
For those who can swing it, B&H is offering the "educational" version of CS6 for a pittance. You will need either a student or educator's ID.
I totally disagree with Gunter. It has nothing to do with amateur or pro, it has to do with the bottom line and pirating (although it won't stop that). I worked five years in a high end portrait studio and no versions of Photoshop there were gotten by "legal" means. Even CS5, which requires you to sign in to register it before use, could be cracked simply by unplugging your internet connection before the final steps of install.
This development is a good reason why I will continue to use my PS7 and Dreamweaver MX-before the CS3 series you could load, reload and "borrow" these programs forever and they work on all Windows OS's.
Profits were in line or above analysts estimates and adobe stock is up 7% today. Subscriptions are the only way any software corporation can survive these days, it's a much more reliable source of revenue than the old model of hoping the users will buy into an upgrade, most users will skip 3-4 upgrades. In any case, most corporations have 3-year plans and 1 quarter's returns will not even register in their gameplan.
One other thing to keep in mind... let's look back at Microsoft Vista and now windows 8... both got bad reviews and MANY customers just didn't upgrade.. some are still using XP... why.. because they can.. and Microsoft got the message loud and clear and voila... windows 7.. and no voila... not window blue / 8.1 is imminent. If we were on a Microsoft window subscription version... customers would have no choice to NOT upgrade.. it would just happen when they logged in.. or if they said this is crap I'm not going to pay.. surprise their computer wouldn't work until they did.
That what is going to happen now with Adobe. there will be no incentive to rethink major application changes... if users want to continue to use the application they will have to pay for those upgrade whether they like them or not.
I think Gunter may be on to it - and otherwise - except for the shares that Adobe owns - what do they care if YOUR shares are now only 15¢. They've already got the money - now, like cellphones and cable or dish networks - they have a steady income for the company. Do you really OWN anything anymore - you think you do - try not paying the property taxes on your paid for you own the deed house or the tax/license fees on your paid for car - see how long before there's a tax lien on the house and your car will be parked - but, my oh my - you do "own them". I have bought a house in the last year, where I've been renting for the past 40+ years - my bad - that was a mistake; my rent was very slightly less than my mortgage - but there was no property tax and if something needed fixing - you call the office; now I have to do the yard work or pay someone to come do it - the latter. We use gas to heat the house - but I have to pay a monthly keep alive gas bill even when I'm not using it - or I can have it turned off for $75 and turned back on next winter for another $75. I have this nice big flat screen tv sitting in the corner - if I don't pay comcast - there is no picture. I own this computer - again - if I don't pay comcast - it's pretty much just a pile of electronics. I just paid ANOTHER cell phone keep alive bill - although I have over 8,000 minutes on the thing - but I cannot find a cheaper plan and I do need it when I'm on the road for emergencies - or when the power goes out here. Folks - it's either taxes of fees to keep breathing air. might as well rent - if you are going to use it. Me - I don't like Adobe - mostly because I never learned it - although I have a copy of CS5 on disk and the key to activate it. and somewhere in my pile of old programs is elements - never used either. I've used GIMP - it's not on this computer - when I was putting stuff on Zazzle. I used a program by Ulead - but Corel bought them.
What Adobe has done, is good for companies, not for individual people. I'm personally not crazy about the Cloud. My husband and I were talking about this the other day. It's easier/cheaper for a company to pay a monthly fee to have access to all Adobe programs for hundreds of users. The company I did work for, design graphics for print and web. Using Adobe Photoshop, InDesign, Illustrator and Fireworks. I don't see that company or any company for that matter, going to another software to get the job done. Sorry, I really don't see companies going with Gimp. Which is how Adobe will be able to keep Cloud going. Adobe makes their money off of corporate companies. You know how much it cost to get a license for just Photoshop for hundreds of users. More then I care to think. If a company goes by the book, they won't use a hack version either.
If you use more than photoshop it is worth it. I use Illustrator, Dreamweaver, Photoshop, InDesign, and To a lesser degree Fireworks. I also use Adobe Professional PDF. At first I balked but the more I think about it the monthly fee will get me lots of extra goodies and I will always be current. I think Gunter is correct about the amateurs moving on to something else.